Last night’s eclipse
I wasn’t able to see last night’s total lunar eclipse, but Google+ is full of great images. Take a look.
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Jared Smith
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Jared Smith
First snow cometh
Looks like I’ll get to see my first snow of meteorological winter (or at least the aftermath) late Wednesday night/Thursday morning. Fortunately it will be a short-lived event, so it will just be enough to enjoy it without it hanging around so long that it sticks to everything and I have to remember life with snow chains.
I’ve particularly enjoyed Wes Junker’s analysis of this event (Junker is the winter weather expert at the Washington Post’s Capital Weather Gang group weather blog).
I’ll try to shoot some photos Wednesday night or first thing Thursday morning.
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Jared Smith
Slight risk of severe weather overnight
Keeping an eye on a slight risk for severe weather in the SC Lowcountry overnight into Thursday AM. Looks like the greatest risk remains to the NW but this is something to watch, especially since severe weather is very rare in SC in mid-November and it will be an overnight event.
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Jared Smith
Another coastal storm soon?
First, an apology: Time has been at an extreme premium with the wedding coming up and a whole lot of work in general. That situation won’t change much over the next few weeks, so I’ll still be very sporadic.
The GFS and NAM both seem to want to bring a very deep low pressure system — whether it will be tropical is up for debate, though it seems to be classified as 95L now — up the East Coast through the Charleston area in the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe. (See the figure to the right.) Such a setup would be almost identical to last week, which brought significant rainfall, gales, a flood threat and even a minimal tornado risk (fortunately, flooding nor tornadoes panned out for Charleston).The setup would also bring in some very chilly weather — the coldest of the season according to the National Weather Service. Granted, highs of 65 are quite seasonable for this time of year (and near to what we have had up here for a month now in Northern Virginia), but they may still be a shock to the system for people who spent the past weekend at the beach.
There’s a ton of uncertainty around this model solution right now (both with intensity and exact timing and track) so this will be one to watch. Bonus points for the tropical angle, though much like last week it won’t really matter much if it a tropical system, per se, as it will still draw in more moisture and produce some decent rainfall for the East Coast.
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Jared Smith
I’ve been pretty tied up the last few days (capped off with a 9.5 hr drive to SC which consumed much of my day) so writing time has been limited recently. The best weather read I’ve seen tonight so far is at wxrisk.com, where David Tolleris offers an incredibly in-depth look at what Katia may do as TD 13 and other factors have complicated that forecast greatly.
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Jared Smith
Irene arrives in Northern Virginia
It’s been a wet and breezy day here in Reston, with rains increasing recently; Flash Flood Warnings have been posted for much of the area (though Reston is left out of the polygon for now). Haven’t had any issues with power disruptions or any other weather-related issues thus far.
Rains have been generally moderate and steady; Irene’s interaction with the trough seems to have affected banding pretty considerably. Rains have recently picked up here and this rainfall rate may be here to stay. I suspect additional Flash Flood Warnings will be raised further west as time goes on.
I’m on the second floor of a very sturdy structure that seems resistant to power interruption (have only lost power once in 4+ months of living here) so I am confident that we’ll be fine. Will periodically update as Irene gets closer; its center is about to emerge back into the Atlantic, which should help it maintain Category 1 hurricane strength through landfall on Long Island.
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Jared Smith
The blog will be quiet today as I am doing real-time reporting on Irene over on Twitter.
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Jared Smith
Irene’s potential impacts becoming clearer for SC
NHC’s 5PM track and wind field forecast (above; click to enlarge) indicates that the strongest tropical storm-force winds will impact the Charleston area northward around sundown tomorrow. As a result, a Tropical Storm Warning has been posted for Charleston and Berkeley counties (Dorchester County may see some gusty winds but it looks as if the bulk of the wind will remain to the northeast).
Wind forecast
NWS Charleston is forecasting 25-35 MPH sustained winds with gusts to 45 MPH over much of the area Friday into Friday night; from IOP northward along the coast, the wind speed forecast increases to 35-45 MPH sustained winds with gusts to 55 MPH. (For reference, the minimum wind speed criteria for a severe thunderstorm warning is 58 MPH.)
Storm surge
Storm surge is not expected to be a factor. Unfortunately, Irene’s arrival coincides with a period of enhanced astronomical high tides, which combined with already high surf and rainfall may help to flood downtown Charleston.
Rainfall forecast
The latest 2-day QPF chart indicates the most tremendous rains will remain well offshore; however, an inch or two of rain (at a minimum) is really not out of the question from Irene.
What to watch
Now’s the time to pay less attention to models and more attention to what the storm is actually doing. Irene is forecast to finish turning north tonight; that will be critical to the forecast for Charleston. The other side is to watch for wobbles as well; a jump in track to the left could make a big difference in actual impacts. Finish your preparations tonight; winds like this can still knock out power for a few hours (especially in areas with overhead lines) so it’s good to be ready.
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Jared Smith
11am: Irene is turning
The latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center adds a northerly component to Irene’s movement; it’s now moving NW at 12. This is encouraging as it indicates that the northerly turn forecast by NHC is now indeed underway, on schedule and according to the forecast (which now excludes the Charleston area from the cone of uncertainty for the center of the storm). Irene is a large storm and there is still plenty of time for the track to adjust based on wobbles and other unforeseen phenomena, so I still urge preparedness but also cautious optimism.
Irene is a picturesque and dangerous Category 3 storm with winds at least at 115 MPH; Dr. Rick Knabb, hurricane expert at The Weather Channel, suspects it may be stronger. The forecast track makes this less of a South Carolina event and more of an Outer Banks/Mid-Atlantic/New England event, which will impact millions upon millions of people who don’t normally see this kind of activity. Right now, the extended track puts landfall just east of Boston Sunday evening/early Monday morning; again, 4-5 day forecasts have significant margins of error in both intensity, timing, and location.
As crazy as this sounds, Irene may have more impacts on me in Reston, VA than it will in Charleston, SC.
Specifics are still up in the air some with regards to impacts in the Lowcountry. NHC is outlining a 30% chance of tropical storm-force winds along the Charleston County coast within 120 hours; this probability increases to 40% along the Grand Strand. Tropical storm-force winds are 39 MPH and greater; for reference, the National Weather Service criteria for severe thunderstorm wind is 58 MPH. I suspect we will get pretty clear guidance from the NWS office in Charleston later this evening or first thing tomorrow surrounding specific impacts, and I will update here when those statements start to roll in.
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Mike
NYC? Boston? I have kids in one, friends in the other. A Cat 1 then?
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Jared Smith
Sorry Mike, I pulled the trigger too quickly on the post. Updated now. It does look like it will get very close to NYC and Boston as a Cat 1, but they’re in that iffy 4-5 day cone where a lot can change (as Charleston knows very, very well).
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Jared Smith
There will be a new track shortly, but it does appear that tropical storm force winds will be a factor from the Charleston County coast north on Friday night, assuming Irene follows the forecast path perfectly. Any wobble in the track could have drastic impacts on the forecast.
And the Boston landfall as a hurricane is just blowing my mind…
Source: U.S. Naval Research Laboratory
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Mike
It’s time that Yankees find out what our summer life is like.
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Mike 1:33 am on September 2, 2011 Permalink |
You are back in SC?
Jared Smith 10:25 am on September 2, 2011 Permalink |
Yep, back for a few days for lots and lots of wedding stuff. Not sure if I will get to sneak up to Charleston just yet but I’m going to try.