The evolution of Irene’s track
As the animation above shows, if you’re in the centerline of Irene’s track, wait six hours and you’ll likely be out of it. The models have persistently wanted to go further right; they may be getting a better handle on a bit of energy that may strengthen the trough which will help deflect the storm further away. Will watch the models carefully. So far, NHC has erred on the left side of the guidance envelope. More good news: The GFS, which has pegged Irene for Charleston pretty consistently over the last couple days, is trending rightward and now just grazes the SC coast.
I have to reiterate: It’s not time to panic; it’s time to prepare.