First, an apology: Time has been at an extreme premium with the wedding coming up and a whole lot of work in general. That situation won’t change much over the next few weeks, so I’ll still be very sporadic.
The GFS and NAM both seem to want to bring a very deep low pressure system — whether it will be tropical is up for debate, though it seems to be classified as 95L now — up the East Coast through the Charleston area in the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe. (See the figure to the right.) Such a setup would be almost identical to last week, which brought significant rainfall, gales, a flood threat and even a minimal tornado risk (fortunately, flooding nor tornadoes panned out for Charleston).
The setup would also bring in some very chilly weather — the coldest of the season according to the National Weather Service. Granted, highs of 65 are quite seasonable for this time of year (and near to what we have had up here for a month now in Northern Virginia), but they may still be a shock to the system for people who spent the past weekend at the beach.
There’s a ton of uncertainty around this model solution right now (both with intensity and exact timing and track) so this will be one to watch. Bonus points for the tropical angle, though much like last week it won’t really matter much if it a tropical system, per se, as it will still draw in more moisture and produce some decent rainfall for the East Coast.