I’m monitoring the severe risk today; a moderate risk exists from about Summerville northeastward through Moncks Corner and into NE SC, eastern NC, and SE Virginia.
A fairly widespread damaging wind event is being forecast by SPC, with an isolated tornado risk in the mix as well. Tornado watches are up just to the west, with a few tornadic storms recently detected in northeast GA.
No watches are up for SC yet but it’s just a matter of time before we see one. This morning I’m keeping a close eye on temperatures and cloud cover. Right now there are broken clouds over most of the Lowcountry; models indicate they will stay this way for a few more hours. The NAM warms things into the 80s; the GFS is a bit more conservative. This is key for additional instability. The next few hours are critical for any severe threat in SC.
Coastal areas are in a slight risk area for severe weather; forecasters are anticipating that the marine influence will take some of the punch out of these storms as they run for the coast, but damaging winds are still a definite possibility.
Watch @chswx on Twitter as today unfolds. I’ll update here and Google+ periodically.